As the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery approaches on Monday night, fans of the teams with the lowest odds for the No. 1 pick might feel their hopes dimming for a shot at Duke’s Cooper Flagg.
The Dallas Mavericks (1.8% chance to secure the No. 1 overall pick), Chicago Bulls (1.7%), and Sacramento Kings (0.8%) have the slimmest odds to land Flagg.
However, NBA history offers Kings fans reason to be optimistic, as several teams have defied minuscule odds to secure the top pick, forever altering their franchises. The lottery’s unpredictability, driven by a ping-pong ball system since 1985, has produced some remarkable upsets.
The 1993 Orlando Magic take the cake. Orlando, with just a 1.52% chance, landed the No. 1 pick and selected Chris Webber (before promptly trading Webber to the Golden State Warriors for Penny Hardaway and three future first-rounders).
In 2008, the Chicago Bulls, at 1.7%, won the lottery and drafted hometown hero Derrick Rose, who became the youngest MVP in 2011.
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The Cleveland Cavaliers pulled off back-to-back miracles, snagging the top pick in 2014 (1.7%, Andrew Wiggins) and 2011 (2.8%, Kyrie Irving via the Clippers’ pick).
Other notable longshots include the 2000 New Jersey Nets (4.4%, Kenyon Martin), 2007 Portland Trail Blazers (5.3%, Greg Oden), and 2019 New Orleans Pelicans (6%, Zion Williamson).
Higher but still improbable odds delivered stars like Yao Ming (2002 Houston Rockets, 8.9%) and Andrew Bogut (2005 Milwaukee Bucks, 6.3%).
These cases prove the lottery can favor the underdog. For Mavericks, Bulls, and Kings fans, the odds are daunting, but history shows that even a 0.8% chance—the Kings’ exact figure—can yield a franchise-defining moment.
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